AI Predicting Credit Risks

Home AI Predicting Credit Risks
17 Oct 202511 min read
AI Predicting Credit Risks Main Image

AI in Finance Field

AI nowadays becomes an essential tool to help compute and process huge amounts of data, analyze it afterward, and make a consequence on all of the meaningful data. The financial services industry undergoes rapid transformation through artificial intelligence which delivers quick and precise analytical capabilities for better decision-making. AI serves as a strong tool for improving operational efficiency and stability in the financial system. The Committee's message underscores the importance of responsible adoption of AI technology to achieve the greatest benefits toward creating stability and helping with prosperity. AI in Finance Image

The Changing Landscape of Credit Risk

Credit risk is still one of the most important problems for banks as it impacts their potential for portfolio stability, capital, and profitability. Over the last few decades, traditional credit scoring approaches to predictive accuracy have been marginally improved through machine learning (ML) algorithms. Both approaches still remain weak in terms of interpretability, requiring structured data, or simply found difficult to apply to unstructured or higher-dimensional variables like ESG disclosures or climate change financial reports. GenAI tools can read annual reports, evaluate ESG compliance, and summarize extensive regulatory documents in a fraction of the time it would take human teams. The purpose of this paper is to explore real-world applications of GenAI in credit risk management, examine the obstacles to scaling adoption, and evaluate the strategic and regulatory implications of integrating these advanced AI technologies into banking operations. Source: McKinsey, Embracing Generative AI in Credit Risk, 2024

Traditional Approaches and Their Limitations

Over the last decades, ML-based credit scoring models (e.g., logistic regression, decision trees, gradient boosting) have become the industry standard. Applications include:
  • Default prediction based on historical repayment behavior and demographic features.
  • Fraud detection through anomaly detection and transaction monitoring.
  • Portfolio risk assessment via statistical stress-testing and macroeconomic scenario analysis.
Yet, these models face structural limitations:
  • Dependence on structured, labeled datasets — difficult to scale when new, text-heavy regulations (e.g., ESG) emerge.
  • Limited interpretability, raising fairness and explainability concerns.
  • Inability to process unstructured data at scale (contracts, PDFs, customer communications).
  • Vulnerability to bias, replicating inequalities from historical data.
Industry surveys confirm that governance, explainability, and data quality remain the largest pain points when applying AI in credit. Source: McKinsey & IACPM, Banking on Gen AI in the Credit Business: The Route to Value Creation, 2025

The Emergence of Generative AI in Credit Risk

Generative AI introduces capabilities far beyond traditional ML:
  • Processing unstructured data (ESG reports, climate disclosures, legal documents).
  • Multi-step automation (data extraction, validation, summarization, and drafting of credit memos).
  • Contextual reasoning with dialogue-based interfaces for analysts and risk officers.
Key innovations include:
  • Large Language Models (LLMs): trained on vast corpora and able to understand complex financial or regulatory text.
  • Agentic AI systems: multi-agent setups where different agents handle extraction, validation, and simulation tasks — reducing hallucinations and error propagation.
As an illustration of how this occurs, consider the manner in which the normally convoluted task of underwriting credit for a small-business customer can be reimagined through the fusion of AI orchestrators and agents. The traditional approach to doing so is to have humans undertake each step, from document collection to discussion with the customer to collateral examination and so forth. With multiagent systems orchestrated, most of those tasks are taken care of by the agents. The credit manager steps in and looks at the agents' output and finishes tasks that require the human touch: speaking to the customer, visiting the small business in question, and the final step, extending the credit offer to the customer. Use cases such as credit memo drafting, portfolio monitoring, and ESG analysis are already reported in industry pilots. Source: McKinsey & IACPM, 2025Generative AI in Credit Risk Image

Case Studies: Early Applications in Banks

Credit Memo Drafting

Banks report time savings of 30–50% when LLMs automatically extract borrower data, analyze statements, and draft memos. Source: McKinsey & IACPM, 2025

UK High Street Bank: Comparing Machine Learning and Traditional Credit Scoring

A prominent UK high street bank recently conducted an experiment to compare the effectiveness of machine learning with traditional credit scoring methods in predicting loan defaults. Thanks to its state-of-the-art technology, Kortical was able to build thousands of machine learning models and identify 83% of previously unseen potential bad debts, at the same rejection rate. The machine learning process enabled the bank to discover otherwise hidden behaviors in consumer conduct, which has subsequently improved outcomes, reduced likelihood of default, and secured a quicker model build outcome. Source: Kortical

Chinese Commercial Bank: Using LightGBM and SMOTEENN for Credit Risk Assessment

A Chinese bank used LightGBM with SMOTEENN to improve credit risk predictions. Dimensionality reduction like PCA boosted accuracy over traditional models and helped identify creditworthy clients.This approach processed structured and partially unstructured data, enabling better decisions, lower default risk, and more efficient portfolio management. Source: arXiv

Portfolio Monitoring and Early Warning

GenAI is used for early warning signals by scanning unstructured news, filings, and reports for risk factors. Source: McKinsey & IACPM, 2025

Challenges and Risks in Scaling GenAI

Significant hurdles will have to be cleared if scaling GenAI is to stand the same potential as its pilots:

Developing a GenAI Ecosystem for Credit Risk Management

  • Transitioning from proofs of concept to enterprise-wide implementation necessitates organizational change. McKinsey has identified eight best practices.
    Source: McKinsey & IACPM, 2025
  • Roadmap for AI capabilities aligned to business strategy.
  • A hybrid-cloud infrastructure that is secure and scalable.
  • Utilization of foundation models (e.g., GPT, Llama, Claude).
  • Open-source libraries that can be reused to accelerate the development life cycle.
  • MLOps pipelines for continuous monitoring and updates.
  • Robust governance structures used for responsible AI.
  • Centers of Excellence (CoE) help build institutional knowledge.
  • A modular architecture separating user experience, business logic, and infrastructure.

Regulatory and Strategic Implications: Regulators are actively shaping the AI credit risk landscape:

So strategically, GenAI could disrupt existing Basel IV frameworks. Both explainability and risk transparency are foundational to Basel compliance.

Conclusion

Generative AI technology has moved from theoretical development to actual operational use in banking systems. Leading global banks have already integrated AI into their operations, and most plan to expand its use further in the near future. The financial sector uses Generative AI to generate credit memos and conduct ESG research and manage investment portfolios according. The upcoming stage requires institutions to expand their adoption of the technology with the implementation of governance systems and data quality management and regulatory compliance measures. Those banks which treat a strategic approach on early implementation would have faster operations with precise results, and regulatory compliance. The financial industry will fully adopt GenAI as its standard for credit risk management during the period from 2025 to 2028.
Get in touchLet's get to know each other better! Fill in the information about yourself to book a demo call with our manager.
First name*
Last name*
Email*
Company Name*
By submitting this form you accept our Terms and Privacy Policy*

Next

Peter Shubenok
Peter ShubenokCEOinfo@processmix.com
Faster Launches, Faster ROIDeliver new products and internal projects in weeks - and see results sooner.
No-Code Agility for Business & Tech TeamsEmpower teams to build, adapt, and scale processes without relying on deep development resources.
Flexible Enough for Any ChallengeWhether you're modernizing legacy systems or building new offerings, ProcessMIX adapts to your strategy.
More Value from Every TeamReduce development cycles and increase output - all without growing your budget.